Barron's

Powell: There’s ‘Always’ a Recession Probability

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn’t discount the possibility of a recession this year, but noted that the central bank didn’t have a forecast in place for an economic downturn. “There's always ...
Business Insider

Economists think odds of a recession in the next year have fallen below 50%. This chart shows how consensus has changed over 18 months.

Goldman Sachs' 12-month recession probability is hovering at 15%, about the "historical unconditional average." A WSJ survey showed the consensus probability of a downturn in the next year dipped ...
JSTOR Daily

Does Competition from China Raise the Probability of Becoming Unemployed? An Analysis Using Spanish Workers’ Micro-Data

Vol. 120, No. 2, The First Six Articles Belong to the Special Issue: ECONOMIC CRISIS AND WELL-BEING IN EUROPE (January (II) 2015), pp. 373-394 (22 pages) In the period 1997–2011, import competition ...