When will the government shutdown end? Here's what the prediction markets think

Prediction betting websites Polymarket and Kalshi have opened markets on when the government shutdown will end. See what the markets think.

Prediction Markets Put 66% Odds on US Government Shutdown, Raising Alarms for Businesses and Investors

Prediction markets are flashing warning signs that a U.S. government shutdown is far from a distant prospect. Data from ...
Business Wire

Credit Benchmark publishes 2024 Default Risk Outlook for US industries, predicting mid-year peak in default risks followed by credit recovery

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Credit Benchmark, the provider of global consensus ratings and analytics, today said that it predicts that default risks will continue to rise and peak by mid-2024 across US ...
Forbes

Probability Of Default Is Rising For High Yield Bonds And Leveraged Loans

In another sign that the U.S. economy is headed for a rough landing, leveraged loans’ and high yield bonds’ probability of default and actual defaults continue to rise. Market signals, as well as ...

Weekly Treasury Simulation, Sept. 26: Most Likely Level For 3-Month Bill Rate In 10 Years

Get the latest Treasury yield forecasts, risk analysis, and default probabilities affecting investors. Click for my latest ...