It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...
Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring ...
Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...
One of the goals of statistics is to make inferences about population parameters from a limited set of observations. Last month, we showed how Bayes' theorem is used to update probability estimates as ...
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 61, No. 2 (MARCH 2012), pp. 219-235 (17 pages) We propose a randomized phase II clinical trial design based on Bayesian ...
WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: ...
Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin is following a similar pattern from its past, which could lead to a $125,000 BTC price by New Year’s Eve. Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a strong price discovery ...
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